Only China broke into the top two in 44 years

Which economies climbed the world GDP table since 1980, and how far? Each row is one economy in one year: the seventeen economies that ranked among the world's twelve largest in any year from 1980 to 2023, with their GDP in current US dollars. The United States held first place in every one of those years. Below it, one economy rewrote the table and the rest shuffled.

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Seventeen paths, and one that crosses them all

On a log axis every economy's path is a slope you can compare. China's is the steep one: it starts at the bottom of the pack in 1980, passes the United Kingdom in 2006, Germany in 2007, and Japan in 2010. Nothing else changes lane as often.

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China grew ninety-five-fold; the United States tenfold

China's GDP in 2023 was 95.4 times its 1980 figure. The United States grew 9.7-fold over the same years and Japan 3.8-fold. South Korea, the other great climber, grew 27.7-fold and India 18.8-fold. In current dollars the whole table inflated, so the comparison that matters is between the multiples, not the levels.

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The 1980 table was European

In 1980 seven of the top twelve were in Europe or North America, and the largest Asian economy after Japan was China, in twelfth place with $191 billion. In 2023 the United States produced $27.8 trillion and China $18.3 trillion; the next largest, Germany, produced $4.6 trillion. Japan's output peaked at $6.33 trillion in 2012 and has fallen since, in dollar terms.

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Takeaway

The world's top two are now the United States and China, and in 44 years no other economy came close to either. The headline "China's rise" is this: a twelfth-place economy grew ninety-five-fold while the rest of the table grew four- to tenfold.

Limits

Current US dollars mix real growth with inflation and exchange rates, so Japan's fall since 2012 is partly a weaker yen. Russia enters in 1988, so its 1980 multiple cannot be computed. Ranks here are among these seventeen economies only.