Costa Rica outlives the United States on a third of the income

Which economies live longer than their income predicts, and which fall short? Each row is one of 197 economies in 2023, with GDP per person at purchasing-power parity, life expectancy at birth, population, and the World Bank's region and income group. Income predicts lifespan well across the whole range, and the exceptions are the interesting part: a handful of middle-income economies live like rich ones, and the richest large economy lives like a middle-income one.

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Each step up in income buys fewer years

On a log income axis the economies lie along one rising band. Doubling income from $2,000 to $4,000 is worth about four years; doubling it again from $40,000 to $80,000 is worth about one. Nigeria sits furthest below the band, at 54.5 years on $7,843 a person; the Solomon Islands sit furthest above it, at 70.5 years on $2,340.

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The income groups are a decade apart, then less

The median low-income economy's life expectancy was 63.6 years. The median lower-middle-income economy's was 67.5 years, the median upper-middle-income economy's 74.0 years, and the median high-income economy's 81.3 years. The gaps shrink from the bottom up: four years, then six and a half, then seven, on incomes that roughly triple at each step.

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Reaching 75 is routine for rich economies and a coin flip below them

Read the curves at 75 years. 89.0% of high-income economies reached a life expectancy of 75 years; 41.4% of upper-middle-income economies did, and 6.5% of lower-middle-income economies. No low-income economy did.

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The United States is the rich outlier

Among economies with more than $20,000 a person, the United States stands apart: 78.4 years on $74,352 a person. Costa Rica reached 80.8 years on $26,379 and Chile 81.2 years on $29,600. Japan, with $47,387 a person, reached 84.0 years, the longest of any large economy. Below the band sit Guyana, at 70.2 years on $49,312, and Russia, at 73.2 years on $39,881.

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Takeaway

Income predicts lifespan, and the prediction gets weaker the richer an economy is. Past about $25,000 a person, how a country spends matters more than how much it has: Costa Rica and Chile reach eighty on a third of American income, and the United States reaches 78 on nearly three times theirs.

Limits

One year, one row per economy, so Tuvalu counts as much as India in every median and share; weighting by people would move the world figure little, because the big economies sit near the band. Twenty economies without a 2023 figure, including Cuba, Venezuela, and Vietnam, are left out. GDP per person is a mean and says nothing about how income is shared.